CVTX trending down- despite good news

Series Submitted by: pharmaking
Personal Finance


Tags: Ranexa, Cvtx, Merlin.

Ranexa- CVTX's lead drug has sold poorly- hampered by a difficult label. The company just submitted an application to change that label- which will almost certainly be accepted- and the stock traded down. With the diabetes data likely to come out soon, this is a great time to start or add to a position in CVTX.

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Submitted: Sep 30, 2007    Views: 1095    Comments: 2    Likes: 32   


CV Therapeutics is again trading under 9.  The stock has been battered by continued slow growth of the Ranexa- there lead compound- sales.

I wrote a while ago about the reason I am a long term bull on this company. http://www.bestcashcow.com/stocks_-_options_-_mutual_funds/series/pharmaking/a-doctors-walk-down-wall-street/chapter/2

I continue to stand by the arguments I made there.  The route to commercial success seems even more clear today.  Since my last discussion, the company has presented and published data from their recent trial- which showed that the drug actually prevents ventricular arrythmias- dangerous heart rhythms that the FDA was concerned the drug might cause.  It also decreased atrial fibrillation.  This has resulted in very favorable coverage from influential sites like theheart.org.  On Thursday the company announced that they have submitted an SNDA to the FDA- this is an application to change the language on the drugs label to make it first line for angina and remove a great deal of verbage regarding arrythmias.  When this was announce the stock traded up 3% in the after hours only to actually end down 3% on the news the next day.  The reason for that move is puzzling to me.

The company will probably be presenting the Diabetes data from their main trial in about 1 month at the AHA.  They have stated that this data was favorable, and if it is as favorable as I suspect it will be the stock should trade much higher than it is now.

So, in about 9- 10 months, this drug will be much easier to sell than it is now- and if the diabetes data comes through, there will be a large pharma company selling it to primary care doctors for a piece of the action.

 

All of this makes this a very attractive entry point for the stock.




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Comments Received:

larry

I am a primary doc and couldn't agree more. It is a steal at this price. Good article.

Posted: Oct 2, 2007

karl
(Unregistered)

I just spoke to a drug rep from CV Therapeutics and he mentioned also that data about glycemic effects will be presented at the upcoming AHA meeting. Also, he mentioned that J&J is interested in taking over CVT. In my own experience as a cardiologist Ranexa is a safe and effective drug. There is a huge upside potential as soon as new data about glycemic effect, effect on arrhythmia (atrial fib) comes out. A lot of primary care physicians will prescribe the drug in the future. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock goes up to $15 within the next 6 months.

Posted: Oct 19, 2007



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