I believe now more than ever that the stock is poised for a major drug approval followed by an acquisition. The stock will probably go out at about 25-30 making the move so far seem puny in comparison.
Why do I believe all of this? Mainly, the reasons haven’t changed from my previous post.
There is still no new bad news about pancreatitis from long acting exanatide. Instead, a few days ago, the FDA announced a link between Januvia, a competing diabetes drug with a different mechanism, and pancreatitis. Merck rejected this association, and stated that they believe that it is diabetes, which is associated with pancreatitis and not the drug. While I generally don’t take anything Merck says seriously, I think they are right on the mark here. There is clearly an epidemiologic association between pancreatitis and diabetes, and it is that relationship that the FDA keeps turning up when they look at different drugs.
This news for Januvia should either- 1. Slow the sales of a competing drug- which should be good for Byetta sales or 2- make it clear to the good folks at the FDA that this isn’t a drug specific problem and approve The long acting Exanatide soon.
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