The Illogic of Facebook Apps

Recently, I've read that many prominent techologists and reviewers of the Internet space have likened Facebook apps to the next big thing.  I think this is the wrong view of what is happening on Facebook and shows the hype that swirls around web 2.0 products and services.  It's important to separate the reality from the hype.

Water through the Dam

Some initial Facebook apps have met with tremendous success but this is like the first bursts of water through a dam.  The initial surge is powerful since the pressure needs to equalize.  But once a volume of water has made it through and the pressure equalizes, the flow slows to a trickle.  As more and more apps pile onto Facebook, they will have a hard time differentiating themselves.  When users have to pick from a list of thousands of apps, how is any one app going to stand-out?  Will the time spent developing the app be worth it and how many apps will really see such large increases in users.  Probably not many.

Changing Nature of Facebook

I watch my wife use Facebook and she is there to meet and stay in contact with her friends, not download some fancy application that clogs here screen.  The attraction of Facebook was always that it was a clean, safe, easy-to-use system to connect with a "trusted network."  Apps seem to run counter to the very elements that made the site successful.

Monetization

How can those apps that are successful make money?  Is Facebook going to revenue share with the app developers?  What will Facebook allow?  If you're going to commit time and resources to developing on Facebook it would be nice to know how the game works.  I personally wouldn't want the fate of my company or a revenue line controlled by the whim of Facebook management.

Why A Closed Community?

Facebook and MySpace seem like a throwback to the good ole AOL days.  Let's create a walled community separate from the Internet and develop our own applications, etc.  In the short term, it may work.  But there is no way Facebook developers can develop their platform as fast as the rest of the Internet.  As a result, Facebook's platform will fall behind and become an increasingly less-attractive place to develop an app on.  If you have the entire Internet, why wall yourself off on Facebook.

I hope my competitors develop apps for Facebook.  While their wasting their time, I'll be developing apps for my own website, where I keep the advertising revenue, have control over the platform, keep my brand equity, and maintain the flexibility to link to Facebook and any other site as I want.  And if/when Facebook goes down or peaks, I can move onto the next site.