Fed Officials: Next Move Will Be Rate Increase

Article Submitted by: Sol Nasisi
The Economy


Fed officials have gone on record as saying that the next move the Fed makes will be a rate increase. It won't be happening anytime soon though.

 

Submitted: Aug 26, 2008    Views: 79    Comments: 0    Likes: 1   


Fed officials have gone on record as saying that the next move the Fed makes will be a rate increase.  When that happens though, is anyone's guess.  The Fed took a Jekyll and Hyde approach to the economy, noting the weakness of the economy and the potential for growing inflation.  Here's one excerpt from the notes:

"In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for
the intermeeting period, members agreed that labor
markets had softened further, that financial markets
remained under considerable stress, and that these factors—
in conjunction with still-elevated energy prices
and the ongoing housing contraction—would likely
weigh on economic growth in coming quarters. In addition,
members saw continuing downside risks to this
outlook, particularly reflecting possible further deterioration
in financial conditions. Members generally anticipated
that inflation would moderate; however, they
emphasized the risks to the inflation outlook posed by
persistent high readings on headline inflation and a
possible unmooring of inflation expectations. Against
this backdrop, nearly all members judged that leaving
the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting was
appropriate and would most effectively promote progress
toward the Committee’s dual objectives of maximum
employment and price stability. Most members
did not see the current stance of policy as particularly
accommodative, given that many households and businesses
were facing elevated borrowing costs and reduced
credit availability due to the effects of financial
market strains as well as macroeconomic risks. Although
members generally anticipated that the next
policy move would likely be a tightening, the timing
and extent of any change in policy stance would depend
on evolving economic and financial developments
and the implications for the outlook for economic
growth and inflation."

The Fed expects that economy to remain weak for some time and for inflation to moderate.  It doesn't think that the current 2% rate is particularly accomodative, mainly because banks have restricted their lending and have increased rates on many loans.


The markets largely agree and believe there is a 80% and 70% probability that the Fed will stay at 2% at the September and October FOMC meetings.

From a CD and savings rate account perspective, expect rates to remain at the current levels, between 3-5% APY for at least the next 2-3 months.  Rates will eventually rise, but probably not until sometime in 2009.





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