There are many people who believe that the 2008-2009 financial crisis marked a seismic shift in the interest rate paradigm and that interest rates will never go back to a pre-crisis “normal”.

When Jerome Powell became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he seemed determined to raise rates back to a new normal long-term goal of 3%, and in fact stated that the Fed intended to raise the Fed Funds rate above that level. But, the Fed Funds rate now sits at a target of 2.25% to 2.50%, and may not be going higher any time soon as Powell has bowed to Presidential pressure. Some Fed governors and former Chair Janet Yellen have recently come out and said that the next Federal Reserve move could well be to cut. And, today, Kyle Bass says that interest rates could be back to zero before the end of next year.

The idea of interest rates going back to zero concerns me, as it does many. It is, indeed, difficult to fathom how we could finally have pulled out of this recent multi-year period where the public at large was forced into risk assets in order to avoid deterioration in their wealth, only now to be heading right back into it.

Kyle Bass is pretty smart and, while he isn’t always right, he has made some very prescient predictions in the past. Those who can tolerate Brian Sullivan, can watch Bass’s interview here (he is largely talking about China, and doesn’t make this prediction until the end):

While Bass did not got into too much detail about how he formed his hypothesis, he did say he believes that US will experience a slowdown following a global economic slowdown beginning by the end of this year. One might surmise that he believes the precedent is in play for the Fed to use all bullets in its resolve to fight a global economic slowdown. The additional reality here is that interest rates around the world remain at or near zero and unless they start to move higher and stay higher, the Fed could need to move rates lower to prevent the US dollar from becoming too strong. Plus, the President has Chair Powell’s ear and if he remains a free man, it is a certainty that he will be lobbying forcefully for as many rate cuts as possible just in front of the 2020 election

Bottom line: This could be a good time to begin to consider putting some of the cash that you cannot afford to risk into long-term time deposits (Certificates of Deposit). Check the best 3-year CD rates, 4-year CD rates and 5-year CD rates here.

Those paying taxes this month in States like New York, New Jersey and California have been hit with quite a wake up call over the last few days.

Our tax bills, as a result of the 2018 Republican tax cuts, are much higher, especially since we have lost all sorts of deductions for our state taxes.

Out of the woodwork are emerging two groups of people eager to present their solutions to making April 2020, as compared with this April, a little less painful:

1. Real estate agents from Florida and Texas.
2. Those pushing municipal bonds.

I have nothing bad to say about the former, and I am not going to comment about the risks and benefits of relocating to Florida or Texas (I do know that New York spends a lot of money each year checking to be sure that former NY residents have met the required criteria of residency in another state and tracking them down for past taxes where they haven’t).

Rather, I want to address the people pushing municipal bonds and municipal bond funds. I am going to say, quite simply, that my view is that buying these instruments at this time is a terrible idea for all but the extremely wealthy. Here are 2 reasons:

First, most people, especially now, need their liquidity and should not tie up large amounts of cash in a low interest rate environment. One-year municipal bonds - if you can find them – in New York or California have a yield to maturity below 1.40%. Even if you are in a 50% effective tax bracket, that is still a fully tax equivalent return of only 2.80%, and you can still get 2.80% (or better) in a 1-year CD. Unlike municipal bonds, however, you can withdraw your money early from 1-year CDs with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty (BestCashCow recommends that you identify CDs with only three month of interest as such a penalty). As long as you stay within FDIC and NCUA limits, your CDs bear no credit risk. Check online CD rates here. Check local rates at banks here and credit unions here.

Second, municipal bond interest rates are extraordinarily low. You need to go out 30 years to find a municipal bond yielding over 3%. As a point of comparison, I was purchasing high-quality AA New York municipals in 2009 (during the financial crisis) that were seven years in duration and were yielding over 5%. As a general rule, I do not recommend that anyone should buy municipal bonds of more than 5 to 10 years in duration under any circumstance. At the moment, high quality municipal bonds of those durations have tax equivalent yields that, again, do not offer significant premiums over 5-year CDs. They also are extraordinarily risky as they can lose tremendous value (even those of intermediate durations) should long-term rates increase.

Bottom line: Wait until you see higher long-term rates before considering municipal bonds.

There are several well-known online banks that are offering 1-Year CDs at 2.85%. In fact, some banks may even be a little higher. You can see the list of the best online 1-year CD rates here. You may also find better one-year CD rates offered by local banks near you or credit unions near you.

BestCashCow, of course, provides the most comprehensive list of CD rates in the US. At various points, I have highlighted what I believe to be great one-year rates.

I, however, have not been particularly eager to recommend that people get heavily into one-year CDs at 2.85% and that has caught many of BestCashCow’s readers by surprise and been the source of a lot of queries that I have received.

Here are the reasons why I would be hesitant to jump in heavily:

First, the Federal Reserve is still raising rates, most recently moving the Fed Funds rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The Fed has also most recently guided towards a neutral rate of 2.80%. But, they also said that there are 2 more moves in 2019 and one in 2020 and that would take the Fed Funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% in a little over a year.

Second, I see a risk of real inflation in 2019 and into 2020 as I outlined at the end of this article. If that happens, we are looking at higher rates and a Fed that will raising faster and higher.

Third, savings rates are pretty high and getting more so. Even if I believe that they aren’t going higher, they really are unlikely to go lower over the next twelve months. I count no fewer than ten nationally available online savings offerings at 2.25% and many more available at banks locally and at credit unions. $100,000 deposited in any of those places paying 2.25% is going to deliver no more than $600 less than a one-year CD (and that $600 difference is fully taxable). The savings account could also wind up delivering roughly the same amount or even more than a one-year CD if savings rates continue on their upward trajectory.

Fourth, you are locking your money up and even though 1-year is a short period of time, it is still locked up. In return for that extra fully taxable $600 (or less) on $100,000, you are locking your money up into 2020. If you need your principal back, Sallie Mae or Live Oak Bank are going to charge you three months’ interest (other online banks, such as Marcus or Purepoint will actually charge you more to break a one-year CD). A three-month’s interest penalty on $100,000 at 2.85% is $712.50.

If you have money that you don't need for a year, you can always put some of it into 1-year CDs. However, if you think that there is even a remote chance that you will need the money back or that rates could go much higher, then the risk-reward of the 1-year CD just is not very exciting. I’d stay primarily in online savings accounts.