Articles

Although for some time now many thought Merck was an easy short, given Vioxx and the large number of law suits and settlements before it, the company had a strategy in place to rise again. And, rise again it did. It fooled everyone as its stocks withstood the shocks and has been coming back ever since. Today, one has to have a head in the sand not to see the possibilities of this company – in spite of the suits still before it – AND its new directions, guaranteed to bring in big bucks for its shareholders.

It will not be long before China’s bubble bursts. The Shanghai index hit over 5000 yesterday, five times where it was mid-2005. Last November, it hit 2000; in March 3000; and in May 4000. One doesn’t need to be a genius to see a big bubble and to see one at the very verge of blowing up. When it does, it will have a huge impact on other markets – most of which are heavily into China’s. It will be viewed, additionally, as very embarrassing by the Chinese. China’s way of dealing with any international embarrassment is to act decisively and forcefully. Executions are common strategies, and you can be sure that heads will role (literally!).

Contrary to what pundits are saying on CNBC, this is not the time to be investing in emerging markets.

Yesterday, Bank of America announced that it was investing $2 billion to acquire a stake in Countrywide Financial. The investment is another example of how dominant Bank of America is becoming in the country's financial system. It already is the largest retail bank in the country, serving tens of millions of customers and has the largest branch and bank network. The company also purchased MBNA last year to have one of the largest credit card portfolios.

Somehow Angelo Mozilo's comments to Maria Bartiromo this morning don't pass my smell test.

The stock market frenzy of recent has been a thing to behold. Something fundamental has happened – actually crept up on us – that has turned the traditional herd behavior so characteristic of past market events into a new stampede phenomenon. Anyone who has tried to herd cattle knows that it is not as easy as it looks and that, importantly, it takes time to get them all moving in the same direction. Stampedes are something else. The volatility we have all experienced, big time, these last weeks (both up and down) has been an ever more important indicator that something has taken hold of the market to which we have given insufficient attention and that will continue to have a fundamental impact not only on markets, but on individual economies and the world economy too.

The yield on treasury bills plummeted today as investors sought them as a safe haven. Clearly, the impact of the credit crisis is not over.

AOL had no choice but to try to remake itself completely when changing internet access patterns forced it to give up its once lucrative subscriber revenue model. The company was a great early entry into the use and possibilities of the internet. It was filled with people (I knew them all in the early days) who were filled with the excitement of breaking ground and leading a seismic shift in communications and information. But things have changed rapidly, and AOL is yesterday.

Effective immediately Capital One is sutting down its mortgage unit GreenPoint Mortgage. The companys stock is taking a beating. The damage continues.

A new term (to me) describing many of the sub-prime loans given over the last five years.

The market girations of recent are hard on even the most seasoned investor. Sleepless nights are common during these periods. I have shorted many times before, but only when I believed a particular equity for a particular reason was going to go south. This time, I tried a different kind of short program, and I am sleeplng (and doing other things) again.

I find agency bonds particularly attractive here.