Savings and CD Rates Flat While Mortgage Rates Down - Weekly Rate Update

Savings and CD Rates showed little change from a week ago even as the average 30 year mortgage rate dipped a bit. With low inflation and an economy stuck between reverse and first, there's little reason to see rates rising anytime soon.

Economic data this week painted a picture of an economy that's still stuck between reverse and first gear. First the good news. GDP grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, the first time we've experienced growth in the last three quarters. If true, it would mark the end of the recession, or least this leg of it.

But if you look deeper into the numbers you realize that much of the growth came from government stimulus programs, specifically the much maligned cash for clunkers program. With the program over, we would expect growth to slow, and that's exactly what seems to be happening. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that consumer spending dropped by 0.5% in September. In addition, inflation was practically non-existent. The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August. A lack of inflation is not the sign of a sizzling economy. Indeed, many economists have begun to mention the deflation word again.

So, the economy is still on government life-support and inflation is nowhere to be seen. That means we can expect the Fed to keep rates low. Bad news for savings and CD rates altough a lack of inflation is generally good for savers (inflation eats away at the value of money in the bank).

In general, this would also be good for mortgage rates, but these rates aren't determined by the Fed. They're generally set by the price of 10-year Treasury notes, and with mounting US deficits, and the end of the Fed's Treasury buying program, there is some thought that mortgage rates may go higher.

Here's how all of this impacted rates this week:

CD and Savings Rates

Rates on Certificate of Deposits were little changed from a week ago. Average rates and changes are below:

Rate Change

1 Year Average CD Rate: 2.08 +1 basis point

3 Year Average CD Rate: 2.80 +2 basis points

5 Year Average CD Rate: 3.35 - 2 basis points

The average savings rate showed no change from the previous week. For all intents and purposes, savings rates have bottomed and are now waiting for the Fed to raise rates to begin climbing. That may not happen for some time.

Looking at the yield curve we have developed for deposit accounts we can see the the ratio between savings rates and 36-month CDs reached a new high last week. This reflects the small increase in the 3-year CD and the lack of change in the savings rate. This steepening yield curve could be a sign of the divergence in short term rates (controlled by the Fed) and longer-term rates, which take their cue more from the bond markets.

Mortgage Rates

The average 30 year mortgage rate actually dropped a bit in the past week, from 5.014% to 5.054% according to the BestCashCow mortgage rates table. If 10-year bond yields rise though, mortgage rates will rise with it.