The business model of leveraging credit upon credit has failed. It wasn't a Bear Stearns model, it was an industry. There were many culprits, banks without the intellectual capital to grow the business of the basis of investment banking or trading like Goldman, Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan, that just leveraged their balance sheet and kept leveraging and leverage. A crazy credit environment, a housing bubble and a strong economy all contributed to the environment. But, when you build with leverage on leverage, it doesn't take too much to bring down the house.
The house is falling now. These banks are down 10% every day. The model has failed and there is nothing left. This will continue until we see a major failure.
I believe that Citi will be bailed out by some middle eastern prince or sovereign wealth fund. I am less certain of Lehman, Merrill and Wachovia. I think that one of these banks will fail and fail soon.
However, I could be wrong so I wouldn't dream of shorting one of these.
Comments
J Simpson
September 17, 2008
Sam Cass, Merryl Lynch was boughtout by BOC today also, so that makes two. Also Wachovia is likely to fail within the next 2-3 years.
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V. Pandit
September 18, 2008
Citigroup is very well capitalized. Keep the short thought comments quiet. You are clueless.
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A.G
September 23, 2008
Amazing!!! I wish I had read this in June!
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A.G
September 23, 2008
please excuse the typo. I meant July. Anyhow what do you make of the current situation and would you still say that wachovia and citibank will fail within the next few months/years?
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Bruno
September 25, 2008
no big bank has failed yet...only investment banks like Lehman that had no deposit base to tap when credit froze...Merrill did not fail it was bought at quiet a big premium over heir share price i might add.
wachovia and citi have loads of assets they can sell before having to fail, wachovia securities for one would attract a lot of interest...and wachovia has now for the first time in decades a solid CEO in charge, if paulson plans goes through they will also be probably one of the most beneficiated banks by it out there...all their core businesses are doing good except their troubled mortgage portfolio if they can dump that at adequate prices wachovia will be just fine...citi on the other hand will need major restructuring its just too big and burocratic.
anyway i believe both wachovia and citi are in the "too big to fail" category, lehman wasnt but these banks certainly are.
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James H
September 26, 2008
Wamu bailed out by Chase...
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Sam Cass
September 27, 2008
WaMu failed and was then bailed out by Chase. The OTS took control.
Wachovia and National City are down sharply today. Wachovia has a bunch of mortgage junk on its books.
Citi will also come under pressure and will not be the same company by the end of this.
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Sam Cass
September 30, 2008
Citi just purchased Wachovia. Only Citi is left from your original list.
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Mortgagemillions
September 30, 2008
You should've followed your guts you nailed every one. Unfortunately you were too right.
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Larry
October 13, 2008
So who do you predict will be next given the recent turn of events?
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