Biggest winner from ENHANCE is AstraZeneca

Buying AZN is the best way to play enhance if you didn't short MRK and SGP

The money has already been made on shorting MRK and SGP, but there is still a good way to play the shake up in the statin market.  Crestor should gain substanially in market share.  It seems reasonable to think that they will pick up at least 20% of the zetia and vytorin defectors.  That should be about 1 billion a year in new sales.  In addition to all of this new business, AZN has released some very impressive data in the last 24 hours.  Last night they announced that there large endpoint trial, Jupiter,showed benefit, and that it is being stopped early.  While we don't know the exact numbers, this is huge news.  Also , just a few minutes ago, the angiographic data from asteroid was released- showing that Crestor is the first drug to show net regression of stenosis.

So in summary, lots of good news in a stock which is near its 52 week low and paying a 5% dividend.  I am putting all of the money I made yesterday shorting the other guys into this stock today.

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Comments

  • drdellerdoc

    April 02, 2008

    Agree, AZN has moved to the front of the statin market any JUPITER results should open up a whole new potential market(normal LDL but high CRP levels). The pleiotropic effect may be even more important than the lipid lowering effect. Additionally, CORONA did show a significant reduction in rehospitalization rates in CHF pts. and expect GISSI-HF will do the same. Believe the immunomodulatory activity of statins in general has been under appreciated but awareness seems to be increasing.

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