Hot Tips from my shoeshine man and Ben Stein

The markets here, abroad, and far abroad are on fire. The good times are here, and we can all participate. Just jump in, buy any stock, and your dreams will be fulfilled. Ask anyone. And, if you don’t ask, they will tell you anyway. The time is here when the clerk at Target, the gym coach at school, the aunt in Cleveland are all passing on tips too good to ignore. It is the time when you say “I can’t stand it any longer,� and jump in. Yesterday, the case was made even more compelling when Ben Stein, sitting comfortably in Frankfurt, Germany offered his list of must-have stocks and opined that “… in 10 years, you’ll regret it if you don’t buy in July 2007.�

The markets here, abroad, and far abroad are on fire.  The good times are here, and we can all participate.  You just have to jump in, buy any stock, and your dreams will be fulfilled.  Ask anyone. And, if you don’t ask, they will tell you anyway.  The time is here when the clerk at Target, the gym coach at school, the aunt in Cleveland are all passing on tips too good to ignore.  It is the time when you say “I can’t stand it any longer,” and jump in.  Yesterday, the case was made even more compelling when Ben Stein, sitting comfortably in Frankfurt, Germany offered his list of must-have stocks and opined that “… in 10 years, you’ll regret it if you don’t buy in July 2007.”

 

These are the hardest times in market cycles, when even the usually cautious give up and throw it all to the wind.  To sit on the side as the indexes make new highs day after day and when all those exotic markets elsewhere are moving higher and higher is to feel like a fool and to suffer the disapproval of friends, colleagues and family.   

 

Market timing is generally an unwise strategy.  But there are times for caution and perspective – such as this – when everyone is generously sharing their best wisdom and poking fun at you for not going with the crowd.  There is just too much hype out there, and many too many new highs on most markets not to believe that we are in for an unpleasant and prolonged drop.  All the contrary signals of the past are here, but our spirits want to soar with the rest, and jumping in is almost irresistible. 

 

When Ben Stein joins the group (http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/38424), then one’s contrary position is really shaken.  But, it is also a screaming signal that we are all getting too caught up in the moment and surrendering cool and calm perspective. 

 

Be careful out there.   

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Comments

  • Anonymous

    July 10, 2007

    This captures my sense of being caught in the wind. I want like hell to get in -- and everyone is saying I am a fool to stand outside -- but it just feels like times past. Thanks for this article.

  • Anonymous

    July 10, 2007

    Boy, would I like to jump in -- and oh how hard it is to stay out. But you are right. We have been here before, and it is just plain stupid to get in at this time.

  • Anonymous

    July 10, 2007

    You can chart the market and we can always look back and point to the times to get in and times to get out. The Asian crisis in 1998 would have been a time to get in, February 2000 would have been a time to get out, and July 2002 would have been a time to get in. Stein's comments are indeed mistaken - while the market may go higher over the next 10 to 20 years, it may also go lower. In any case, any point over the last 5 years would have been a better entry point than now, and there will certainly be better entry points in the future. While market timing is impossible, I am sure that there is no magic in July 2007 as Stein suggests.

  • Anonymous

    July 11, 2007

    Noone every knows where the market is going to go. What has struck me this time is how the market has run up with hardly anyone discussing it. Sure, it's news in the financial markets, but the rest of the country is too preoccupied with energy costs, iraq, terrorism, the housing market.

    I also think that as the housing market continues to deflate, many will be shifting their assets from real-estate back into stocks. I think there is still quite a bit of running room.

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