Maybe, Just Possibly, Are We Looking At Recovery?

The economy overall is still in terrible shape...but are we seeing the first stirrings of recovery?

The numbers are horrible everywhere you look, but the vaguest glimmers of hope are starting to emerge.

Yes, yes, I'm quite thoroughly aware that the economy is still in a death spiral. And I know that even the vaguest hint of recovery will be treated with the maximum possible derision in most corners. In fact, I can hear vague bleatings of "sheeple" in the background, but this is commonly aimed at anyone who says anything that doesn't agree with everything that people who actually SAY "sheeple" would say.

But in the event that the end is not yet, to misquote the classic, it's worthwhile to consider word that I got this morning from one of the many publications I subscribe to to watch out for business news, Money Morning, that lead off with the headline "The Bull Market is Intact and On The Move".

It's generally accepted that the stock market is the first thing to come back after a recession--stocks that were devalued in the face of bad conditions get fresh investment from bargain-hunting investors. And indeed, that's been something of the case here as the Dow is making some impressive gains over its big fall back in 2009. So impressive, in fact, that a lot of analysts are just plain old confused given everything else that's going on.

And that's why it's entirely too early to break out the champagne and announce recovery. Make no mistake, there are still LOTS of problems to deal with here, and they're bad ones at that--commercial real estate alone is in for a real horrorshow. But there is some possibility that the very deepest doomer types are, once again, wrong. It would, however, probably be a good idea to continue to play your savings in conservative fashion, and make your investments very sound as opposed to going for lucrative.

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