Not normal trend --- new high followed quickly by bear market

It just doesn't happen that way. This is not a bear market. Sure, you can point to the credit markets (but problems there were fully known when Dow hit 14000), but where are the weak corporate profits, irrational overconfidence, etc.? Something is wrong.

It just doesn't happen that way.  This is not a bear market.  Sure, you can point to the credit markets (but problems there were fully known when Dow hit 14000), but where are the weak corporate profits,  irrational overconfidence, etc.?   Something is wrong. 

Profit worries have been carried way too far.  The credit market will shake out without huge impact.  We have been demonstrating that the economy is landing softly and gaining impressive momentum.  And, most important, inflation has remained in an acceptable range.

I would bet that growth is about to build back and that all we are seeing is an over-zealous pull back (one of a number such 5% or so corrections in the last half dozen years).

We are obsessed with bad news.  But, there is too much good news.  And, one piece of good news is that there are great deals in the market in almost every sector.  This is a time for celebration.  Let others panic.

Daniel Socolow
Daniel Socolow: President, Socolow Group. Former Director of the MacArthur Fellows Program, President of the American University of Paris, Vice President of Spelman College. BA, MA, Ph.D.

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Comments

  • Anonymous

    July 30, 2007

    I agree. The drop is just a pause before the market continues climbing again. We are not in a bear market, none of the indicators point to one.

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