There are many people who believe that the 2008-2009 financial crisis marked a seismic shift in the interest rate paradigm and that interest rates will never go back to a pre-crisis “normal”.

When Jerome Powell became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he seemed determined to raise rates back to a new normal long-term goal of 3%, and in fact stated that the Fed intended to raise the Fed Funds rate above that level.  But, the Fed Funds rate now sits at a target of 2.25% to 2.50%, and may not be going higher any time soon as Powell has bowed to Presidential pressure.  Some Fed governors and former Chair Janet Yellen have recently come out and said that the next Federal Reserve move could well be to cut.  And, today, Kyle Bass says that interest rates could be back to zero before the end of next year.

The idea of interest rates going back to zero concerns me, as it does many.   It is, indeed, difficult to fathom how we could finally have pulled out of this recent multi-year period where the public at large was forced into risk assets in order to avoid deterioration in their wealth, only now to be heading right back into it.

Kyle Bass is pretty smart and, while he isn’t always right, he has made some very prescient predictions in the past.   Those who can tolerate Brian Sullivan, can watch Bass’s interview here (he is largely talking about China, and doesn’t make this prediction until the end):

While Bass did not got into too much detail about how he formed his hypothesis, he did say he believes that US will experience a slowdown following a global economic slowdown beginning by the end of this year.   One might surmise that he believes the precedent is in play for the Fed to use all bullets in its resolve to fight a global economic slowdown.   The additional reality here is that interest rates around the world remain at or near zero and unless they start to move higher and stay higher, the Fed could need to move rates lower to prevent the US dollar from becoming too strong.   Plus, the President has Chair Powell’s ear and if he remains a free man, it is a certainty that he will be lobbying forcefully for as many rate cuts as possible just in front of the 2020 election

Bottom line: This could be a good time to begin to consider putting some of the cash that you cannot afford to risk into long-term time deposits (Certificates of Deposit).   Check the best 3-year CD rates, 4-year CD rates and 5-year CD rates here.

Amazingly, Jim Cramer, the biggest proponent of the stock market was interviewed on NBC’s Today show the other day and couldn't say anything other than to buy CDs.

It is a video so extraordinary that you need to watch it here.

To be clear, BestCashCow thinks that CDs should always be an important part of a well-diversified, safe portfolio.   We provide the most comprehensive list of the best online CD rates here, and we also encourage folks to look at rates at banks near them and at credit unions near them.

But, we’ve been suggesting people take extreme caution around anything longer than a year, even though two-year CD rates are now above 3% and may attract attention.   In fact, I wrote just yesterday that I do not find a one-year CD at 2.85% APY to be particularly attractive since online savings rates are strong and the Fed is still raising rates.

But, what is quite extraordinary here is that Cramer could be so easily perturbed (to put it mildly) by the recent market volatility.  This is, in fact, the same man who was encouraging people to buy into Facebook at 200, Nvidia at 290, and Amazon at 2000 in November.

I speak at conferences and extol the virtues of CDs, but I certainly wouldn’t tell people to run out of the market here, and I have no intention of unloading my Nvidia or Amazon at this time.

So what is Cramer afraid of?   I, for one, suspect he just trying to create a record of saying everything imaginable in the most vague way possible so that he can point to it and say he was right (especially if we have a 2009 scenario and he winds up on the Daily Show again).

There are several well-known online banks that are offering 1-Year CDs at 2.85%.  In fact, some banks may even be a little higher.   You can see the list of the best online 1-year CD rates here.   You may also find better one-year CD rates offered by local banks near you or credit unions near you.

BestCashCow, of course, provides the most comprehensive list of CD rates in the US.   At various points, I have highlighted what I believe to be great one-year rates.

I, however, have not been particularly eager to recommend that people get heavily into one-year CDs at 2.85% and that has caught many of BestCashCow’s readers by surprise and been the source of a lot of queries that I have received.

Here are the reasons why I would be hesitant to jump in heavily:

First, the Federal Reserve is still raising rates, most recently moving the Fed Funds rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%.   The Fed has also most recently guided towards a neutral rate of 2.80%.  But, they also said that there are 2 more moves in 2019 and one in 2020 and that would take the Fed Funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% in a little over a year.

Second, I see a risk of real inflation in 2019 and into 2020 as I outlined at the end of this article.  If that happens, we are looking at higher rates and a Fed that will raising faster and higher.

Third, savings rates are pretty high and getting more so.   Even if I believe that they aren’t going higher, they really are unlikely to go lower over the next twelve months.   I count no fewer than ten nationally available online savings offerings at 2.25% and many more available at banks locally and at credit unions.   $100,000 deposited in any of those places paying 2.25% is going to deliver no more than $600 less than a one-year CD (and that $600 difference is fully taxable).   The savings account could also wind up delivering roughly the same amount or even more than a one-year CD if savings rates continue on their upward trajectory. 

Fourth, you are locking your money up and even though 1-year is a short period of time, it is still locked up.   In return for that extra fully taxable $600 (or less) on $100,000, you are locking your money up into 2020.   If you need your principal back, Sallie Mae or Live Oak Bank are going to charge you three months’ interest (other online banks, such as Marcus or Purepoint will actually charge you more to break a one-year CD).  A three-month’s interest penalty on $100,000 at 2.85% is $712.50.

If you have money that you don't need for a year, you can always put some of it into 1-year CDs.  However, if you think that there is even a remote chance that you will need the money back or that rates could go much higher, then the risk-reward of the 1-year CD just is not very exciting.   I’d stay primarily in online savings accounts.

Like many people who realized three or four years ago that interest rates were not going to go up at the time, I locked some money into 5-year CDs back then.

These CDs are now within a year or two of maturity.   The early withdrawal fees on these are either 6-months’ interest or 12-months’ interest.   As long as you don't need the cash, a quick calculation that most people can do in their heads shows that the penalty would be more than any additional yield that you can get and it therefore makes more sense to hold them until maturity.

Yet, as rates have risen, the interest that these CDs are now paying is a little lower than today’s best online savings rates and is quite a bit lower than current best online one-year CD rates.

All online banks that I am aware of will allow you to withdraw the interest that has accrued to the CDs without any penalty.   While the release of accrued interest is not a transaction that can always be done online, I found that with some online banks it is a 2-minute phone discussion.

It releases a small part of the money in the CD, freeing that money to earn a higher rate.

TD Ameritrade is sending out notices to some of its clients offering a new callable step-up CD offered by Toronto Dominion, its parent.

This new product - which offers an initial 3.50% APY interest rate - is dramatically more sexy than their offerings just a few months ago which we discussed and recommended against here.  

After two years, the newly-offered Toronto Dominion CD will pay 4.50% APY for years 3 and 4 and 5%, if it isn’t called away sooner by the issuer.   The issuer has the right to call the CD any time after year 1.   

BestCashCow has never liked brokered CDs.   We recommended that they be avoided when rates where much lower and we basically recommend against them now for the same reason.  Since they cannot be broken with the payment of an early withdrawal penalty, they represent a significant risk to anyone who may require earlier liquidity.   Since this CD has a maximum maturity of 5 years, should you need to get out of it in the early years, you could take a real bath trying to find liquidity in a market that doesn’t exist (where TD Ameritrade is the only buyer).    Should you die before the CD’s maturity, your heirs will likely inherit a fraction of what they would inherit were you to buy a straight 5-year CD.

Moreover, interest rates are presumably still rising and the Fed is likely poised to bring the Fed Funds rate above 3% by the end of 2019.   If you must reach for yield, you can get 2.70% on a one-year CD and then have the liquidity in 12 months to find a new product with a higher rate.  

But, we’ve just had an election that has left the US in an even worse place than we were immediately after the Russians handed Trump the Presidency 2 years ago.   And, that opens up the prospect of falling rates.   Should that happen, this product will be called away on the first possible call date in November 2019.   While you may have brought in 80 basis points more than you would have made in the 1-year CD that pays 2.70%, you will not have been compensated for the risk that you took. 

Sexy?  Yes.

But, dangerous as hell.  

Your better bet is to look at online one-year CDs.

Editor’s Note: The Toronto Dominion product is listed under CUSIP 89114QER5.

As interest rates have begun to rise, I’ve received numerous questions from readers asking about ways that they can get out of paying early withdrawal fees on long-term Certificates of Deposit that they may have bought a couple of years ago, but that are no longer attractive.

As I stated in an earlier article, I strongly recommend against breaking any CD until the rate that you are earning falls below the current rates on comparable savings rates.   In a rising rate environment, you do not want to break a CD in order to get another CD that you may then need to break.   I have 2 years left on a 5-year CD at 2.25% and I will not break it until online savings rates are firmly above 2.25%.  

If you do need to withdraw your money early, the withdrawal is entirely at the discretion of the bank or credit union.   Most banks and credit unions will waive it because of death or adjudged incompetence of the holder, or because a bank merger causes the holder to be over FDIC limits.  Early termination fees may be waived due to other hardships at the bank’s or credit union’s discretion.

Reg D forbids banks from allowing any withdrawal within 7 days of issuance (this restriction also applies to No Penalty CDs), but there are no other limits on a bank’s ability to waive early withdrawal fees.   Any bank officer (or other website) that will tell you that they are lawfully required to charge the early withdrawal fee is misinformed.

However, a contract is a contract and you enter into a time deposit contract when you purchase a CD.   When you break a contract, any contract, the counterparty has a right to extract penalties.  In this case, the bank has made commitments based on its expectation that they are borrowing the money for the course of the CD at the indicated rate.

As with any contract, the party entitled to a penalty can exercise its discretion not to extract the penalty (to waive it).  But, if I were an officer of a bank or credit, I would not be inclined to waive it simply because the customer can now get a higher rate.  Would I waive it if the customer committed to do further business with my bank or credit union?   Would I waive it on a one-time basis if the customer agreed to roll into a higher yielding but longer term CD?   Maybe.